Dennis Dimick—Sobering talk and images from the editor of National Geographic. We’ve dammed 40% of the world’s rivers already. We are a monocultured man. More people, more money, more things means simply more energy. Fossil fuels are just ancient sunshine—why not use contemporary sunshine?
Sally Bingham (Episcopal priest)—Religion has to believe in science. Fossil fuels quite frankly come from hell. Why don’t we shift resources to those that come from the heavens?
Jan Zalasiewicz (geologist)—Defining a new epoch: the Anthropocene. The current epoch is about 11,000 years old, and thus proposing a new one is a big deal in the geological community. The new era results from the scale of change in four main areas: CO2 in the atmosphere, biological changes (extinctions), the most mixing of species in 4.5 billion years, and the acidification of the oceans.
Jonathan Foley (Director, Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota)—We’re doing this in real time without a script and a net. We’ve cleared 40% of the earth’s land for arable farmland (and that was the good 40%). Energy, food, and water are the three pillars of civilization, and they are all connected—we have to take a holistic approach. He’s worried about things like peak phosphorous and less worried about energy because we can imagine solutions, but thinking about food and water is really scary. Science is an open-source transparent iteration towards the truth. Population growth is a bit of a red herring: in the next 40 years it will rise 30% while energy and food demand will rise 200%.
Jerry Glover (The Land Institute)—10,000 years ago, nearly all plant life was perennials (95% or more). Annual planting is a relatively new concept. It has been powerful, allowing us to increase the production of seeds and fruit (since the plant doesn’t have to grow deeper roots or thicker stalks to survive the full season, its energy goes to fruit or seeds). However, annuals suffer from disease (monoculture means smaller gene pools), they require oil as an input (nitrogen fertilizers are derived from oil), and they lead to loss of soil (shallow root systems versus deep root systems). 60% of the energy inputs on a farm are to produce nitrogen. Fertilizer went from $450 to $850 in 2008 when oil spiked to $150 a barrel. The price of energy IS the price of food—this is why there were food riots in 2008 as energy prices climbed—this is a critical point. By late June in Kansas, there are 10 million acres sitting empty as the wheat has been harvested, it’s hot and dry out, and the soil runs off. Over 70% of the world’s food comes from grains. A perennial crop would allow for grain to be grown on marginal soils and allow communities to reclaim barren land. He showed a perennial plant that had a 12′ root structure. The comparable annual would soak up only 10-30% of the water.
Jack Hidary (Chairmen, Global Solar Center)—Let’s start with some perspective on where we are at on power generation: 49% coal, 7% hydro, 3% renewable (1% wind, 0.3% solar), 19.4% nuclear, 20% natural gas. The world uses 80 million barrels a day of oil; the US uses 20 million of these. Words and positioning matter. We’ve been talking about efficiency for 40 years—since Carter—but where has that gotten us? We have to consider the power and connotation of the words to turn dialogue into action. Some proposed new words and phrases for talking about these issues:
Old term -> New term
Efficiency -> Savings
Home Audit -> Home Savings Report
Decoupling -> Consumer Choice
Distributed Generation -> Local Power
Green -> Clean
Carbon Emissions -> Carbon Pollution
Alexander Karsner (Chairmen, Manifest Energy)—There is a design flaw in the way our utilities are built. The more we consume, the more they make—that is exactly the wrong incentive structure. We have to create an incentive structure that focuses on nega-watts not mega-watts. Engage the public utility commissions to rethink the structure. We also need to standardize the rules for access just like for the Internet. Anyone should be able to plug into the grid and supply power (locally, not distributed). He gave example in NYC of a building that took 2.5 years to build and 5 years to get a license to provide local power. Focus on what we can get done in the next 36 months without a comprehensive climate bill—tax changes, strengthening/enhancing RFS and RPS standards. He believes CNG in the transportation infrastructure and nonfood-based biofuels are positives.
Questions & Comments—There has to be an open fuel standard (a chip in cars that allows fuel switching). Focus on outcomes, not technologies—tailpipe reductions and pollution, not which biofuel or particular technology is viable. The public would react if they could see a roadmap of where we are going and how we are going to get there. They are concerned we are moving from a strategic liquid (oil) to a strategic mineral (lithium).
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